Historical Context
Palmeiras must accomplish a feat that has only happened twice in the history of Brazil’s top-tier football competition, which now features 20 teams in a round-robin format. Only in 2009 and 2020 has the team in second place with two matches left managed to clinch the title.
Current Standings
Currently, Palmeiras finds itself three points behind the leader, Botafogo, who secured a 3-1 victory over them in their last direct encounter at Allianz Parque. To become champions, Palmeiras can’t rely solely on their performance; they need a combination of results.
Past Precedents
The last time this scenario played out was four years ago when Internacional led with 69 points after the 36th round, one point ahead of Flamengo. Flamengo overtook the lead in the penultimate match and went on to win the championship.
The other instance also saw Flamengo as champions. Two games before the end, they trailed São Paulo by a single point. They took the lead in the 37th round and secured the national title.
In the other 16 editions of the current format, the team in first place at the 36th round either won the championship early or clinched it afterward. Palmeiras itself has experienced this in their previous championship victories in 2016, 2018, 2022, and 2023.
Upcoming Matches
Despite their recent setback, Palmeiras has an opportunity to reclaim the top spot in their next match. They need to defeat Cruzeiro at Mineirão while hoping for Internacional to beat Botafogo at Beira-Rio.
This would result in both teams having 73 points, but Palmeiras would have the edge with more wins: 22 compared to Botafogo’s 21.
Statistical Impact
Following the direct clash between the top two teams, Palmeiras’ title chances plummeted from 69.74% at the start of the round to just 22.79% after the game at Allianz Parque.
Looking Ahead
Palmeiras has a week to prepare for their next game against Cruzeiro at Mineirão. Their final match will be against Fluminense at Allianz Parque.
